How are Markets Resolved?

Market resolution means outcome for the event has been confirmed and no further trading is allowed. The price of the outcome has either settled to $1 or $0. Users can claim their rewards if they win. Markets will usually resolve after the event concludes or in some cases if the outcome can be confirmed beforehand (for example, BTC price hitting $100k in 2025).

• Resolution Sources: On every market’s page, it is specified how and when the market will be resolved. This could be a specific time (e.g., “Market resolves on Dec 31, 2025, based on the official result by XYZ source”) or dependent on an outcome happening (“If event happens before deadline, market resolves early as Yes”). Probable uses UMA oracle service to fetch the outcome and resolve the markets. Here’s how UMA works. Once the event outcome is known, a transaction is triggered on smart contracts to record the outcome.

• Payouts: After resolution, the smart contracts will automatically allow redemption of shares. If you still hold shares of the winning outcome, you can redeem them for $1 each. If you held shares of the losing outcome, they are now worthless.

• Claiming Winnings: Users need to actively click a “Claim” button to get their payout (which triggers a transaction to swap your outcome tokens for USDT).

• Disputes: Proposed answer may be disputed on UMA within dispute period (can vary and is set per question). If an answer is disputed, UMA token holders get to vote to decide the correct outcome. A dispute is typically resolved between 24 to 48 hours. If for some reason a market’s outcome is unclear after voting the market will resolve at 50/50 YES/NO.