# What is Probable? **Probable** is a crypto-native prediction platform on BNB Chain that lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events across politics, economics, sports, crypto, and more. By trading on your expectations, you can profit from your knowledge and insights about future events. **Key Features:** * **Wide Range of Markets:** Probable offers markets on sports, politics, finance, crypto, and more. If it’s a future event you care about, you can [suggest](https://discord.com/invite/0xprobable) a market for it. * **On-chain:** Deployed on BNB Chain, all trades and outcomes are settled on-chain providing transparent and verifiable history. Users trade using USDT (more collateral options to be supported soon) and benefit from BNB Chain’s low transaction costs and fast confirmations. * **Simple Shares Mechanism:** Each market outcome is represented by shares priced between $0 and $1. If the outcome happens, each share is worth $1 at settlement; if not, it expires worthless. This means the price of a share directly corresponds to the market’s perceived probability of that outcome. * **Flexibility:** You can enter or exit positions at any time before an event concludes. You might buy shares early and later sell them to lock in profits, or hold until final resolution to get the full payout if you’re correct. * **Orderbook style:** Probable simply matches traders with opposing views via orderbook liquidity. Markets are driven by users’ trades and are unbiased, real-time odds. * **Gas-less:** Probable sponsors gas fee for all user trades. Users need to pay gas fees for deposits / withdrawals to their in-app wallet. # How it works? When you open a market, you will see a question about a future event (for example: “Will \ happen by \?”) with two possible outcomes: Yes or No (in some cases, markets may have multiple choice outcomes). Here’s how it works:
* **Outcome Shares:** For each outcome (Yes or No), there are shares that you can buy or sell. The price of a share ranges from $0.01 to $0.99 and indicates the implied probability of that outcome being correct. For instance, if “Yes” shares are trading at $0.65, the market believes there’s roughly a 65% chance that the event will indeed happen. Conversely, a “No” share price of $0.35 would imply a 35% chance of the event not happening (since in a Yes/No market, if Yes is 65% likely, No is 35% likely, totaling \~100%). Prices move as users trade; buying an outcome drives its price up, while selling drives it down. * **Settlements and Payouts:** Each share will resolve to $1 or $0 once the outcome is decided. If you hold shares in the correct outcome, you can redeem each for $1. If you hold shares in the wrong outcome, they expire worthless. For example, say you bought “Yes” shares at $0.65 each. If the event resolves to “Yes,” each of those shares pays out $1, earning you a profit of $0.35 per share. On the other hand, if the event resolves “No,” your “Yes” shares become $0.00, and you lose what you paid for them. * **Trading for Profits:** You don’t have to wait until final settlement to realize gains or losses. You can trade shares at any time before the market’s resolution. If your view changes or you hit a target profit, you might sell your shares early. For instance, you could buy shares at 20¢ and later sell them at 70¢ if new information moves the odds in your favor, locking in profit before the event concludes. * **Market Resolution:** Each market has clear rules and resolution criteria. The question will specify what exactly needs to happen for “Yes” to be the winning outcome (and by what date/time). Probable relies on UMA oracle to determine outcome for a market. # Create an Account If you already have a crypto wallet like MetaMask (or Binance Wallet, etc.) you can directly connect it to the app. Probable supports most of the popular wallets.
After you connect the wallet you will be prompted to create a proxy wallet when you click "Deposit". A proxy wallet is an in-app wallet that will be used for all interactions within the app. {% hint style="success" %} **The gas fees required to create a proxy wallet is sponsored by Probable to offer a better UX.** {% endhint %}
{% hint style="warning" %} **Please note the proxy wallet address won’t be same as your connected wallet.** {% endhint %} After your proxy wallet is created successfully, you will be prompted to deposit funds to begin predicting.
# Funding your Wallet Trades on Probable use USDT as collateral for buying shares. You can fund your proxy wallet via multiple ways: * **If you have no crypto at all:** You will need to purchase USDT with fiat money. The easiest route is using a CEX like Binance or a fiat on-ramp service that supports BNB Chain. * **If you have crypto on any supported chains:** * **If the assets are within your connected wallet:** You can convert those assets to USDT on BNB chain directly via our in-app deposit functionality.
* Select the token you want use to fund your wallet
* Input amount to transfer and confirm the details on the preview
* **If the assets are in another wallet:** You can transfer supported tokens to a unique deposit address shared on UI, on receipt your proxy wallet will be funded with equivalent USDT.
* Select the token and chain you will deposit on the specified deposit address
* After you transfer the specified asset on selected chain, your funds will be bridged and sent to your proxy wallet on Probable {% hint style="danger" %} **The deposit address is temporary and may change by asset or chain. Please don’t save it, always copy it from UI.** {% endhint %} {% hint style="success" %} **Trading is gas-less, the platform covers the cost for you. However when depositing / withdrawing funds from the platform you will need to incur gas cost.** {% endhint %} # Trading Basics Probable runs on a orderbook style model to match orders across users.
**Orderbook Basics:** An orderbook maintains a list of all open buy and sell orders from users who placed limit orders. It’s displayed in two lists: * **Bids (Buy orders)** – these are limit buy orders by users waiting to buy at or below a certain price. The highest bid is the highest price someone is willing to pay for a share * **Asks (Sell orders)** – these are limit sell orders waiting to sell at or above a certain price. The lowest ask is the lowest price someone is willing to accept to sell a share * The spread is the gap between the highest bid and lowest ask. * If the spread is small (say 49¢ bid, 51¢ ask), the market is very liquid and there’s only a 2¢ gap. * If the spread is large (say 40¢ bid, 60¢ ask), there’s low liquidity. * Market orders will generally fill at the opposite side’s best price. For instance, if you place a market buy and the lowest ask is 95¢, you’ll buy at 95¢. If you place a market sell and the highest bid is 90¢, you’ll sell at 90¢. **Providing Liquidity:** When you place a limit order, you become a “maker” in the market. You’re adding liquidity because you are offering to trade if someone meets your price. This helps markets run smoothly. Makers will be incentivised in several ways such as 0 fees, liquidity rewards program (to be launched soon) to encourage high liquidity in orderbook across markets. # How to Place Orders? {% hint style="success" %} **Multiple order types such as “Market” & “Limit” orders are supported.** {% endhint %} #### **Market Orders** A market order means you want to buy or sell immediately at the best available price. If you buy / sell, best asks / bids from orderbook are matched to fulfill your order. In fast-moving markets, that price may shift by the time your order hits, especially for large orders. You might incur large slippage (avg. trade price much worse than last traded price) or encounter insufficient liquidity (especially for large orders), in either cases UI will prompt you with a warning. #### **How to Place Market Orders?**
1. Click on any event on the [listing page](https://probable.markets/) to display the detail page, you will find the trading panel on top right of the page 2. Order type is represented on top right in the trading panel by "Market" or "Limit" and can be switched using 🔁 button 3. Select the direction you want to bet "Yes" or "No" 4. Enter the amount in $ or switch to display in number of shares by clicking 🔁 5. Click on "Place Bet" to complete your market order #### Limit Orders A limit order lets you set a specific price at which you’re willing to buy or sell, and the order will only execute if the market reaches that price. For example, suppose in a market the Yes shares are currently 97¢. You only want to buy Yes if the price drops to 90¢. You can place a limit buy order at 90¢. This order will wait in the system and will only execute if someone is willing to sell at 90¢ (or lower) which matches your bid. If the price never drops to 90¢, your order will remain open (you can cancel it anytime). **Why use limit orders?** They are useful if you think the current price is not ideal and you expect the market to move to a better price level, or if you want to act as a market maker by providing liquidity at a certain price. **Partial Fills:** Limit orders can fill gradually. If you wanted to buy 100 shares at 90¢ and someone sells only 50 shares to you at that price, you’ll get 50 filled and the remaining 50 stay open until more sellers come in. #### How to Place Limit Orders?
1. On the trading panel click 🔁 to switch to Limit orders 2. Select the direction you want to bet "Yes" or "No" 3. Enter the desired limit price for your order 4. Enter Amount in $ or switch to display in number of shares 5. Select Expiration; GTC (Good Til Canceled), IOC (Immediate or Canceled) modes are supported expiry modes 1. GTC - Your order will remain in orderbook unless cancelled by you 2. IOC - Your order will be executed immediately if matched. It could result in complete or partial fill, the unfilled part of the order will be cancelled 6. Click on "Place Bet" to complete your limit order # Tracking Positions & PnL After you have placed an order/s you can track their status on portfolio page or respective event detail page. #### Event detail page
* You can view your existing positions on event detail page by expanding respective outcome * The position table will display * Outcome - Direction of the bet "Yes" or "No" * Qty - Total number of shares bought * Avg. - Average price of the trade * Value - Position value based on current market price * Return - PnL of the position #### Portfolio Page Portfolio page shows all positions and open orders across markets.
You can open the portfolio page by clicking "Portfolio" on the nav bar or through the menu under wallet address.
* **Portfolio Balance:** This shows total balance in USDT summing current value of active positions, funds in open orders and any cash balance. * **My Positions:** This section shows all markets where you hold shares. For each market, you will see the outcome you are holding, total bet amount, average buy price, the current market price, and unrealized PnL. * **Open Orders:** Lists any limit orders waiting to fill. It will show details of the order such as outcome, limit price, quantity filled, total bet amount. You can cancel open orders directly on this page. * **History:** You can review all past activity in your account including deposits / withdrawals, trades, settlements, etc. # Withdraw Funds You can withdraw funds to your connected wallet or any other wallet address in any supported tokens on any supported chain. {% hint style="success" %} **There is no withdrawal fee charged by Probable.** {% endhint %} #### **How to Withdraw funds?** * Go to the [portfolio page](https://probable.markets/portfolio) * Click on "Withdraw"
* Enter recipient address, you can select the connected wallet or enter any other recipient address * Enter the amount to withdraw, select the desired token and chain you would like to receive funds in
* Confirm the withdrawal, you should receive the funds within a minute # Merge and Split Liquidity is the backbone of any prediction market. Traders want tighter spreads, faster exits, and more flexibility in how they manage risk. Market makers want simpler ways to deploy capital without constantly fighting the order book. **Merge and Split** enables instant exits and more capital-efficient liquidity provision on Probable. *** #### How to Access Merge and Split Merge & Split is available directly inside the trade panel.\ Users can switch between **Buy / Sell** and **Split / Merge** depending on their strategy.
#### Split Split lets you convert USDT into both YES and NO shares at the same time. * **USDT is split 1:1 into YES + NO shares (50 USDT → 50 YES + 50 NO)** * Shares are minted directly, bypassing the order book * No fees apply
#### Merge Merge lets you convert a matched pair of YES and NO shares back into USDT instantly. * **Equal amounts of YES and NO shares are converted 1:1 into USDT (50 YES + 50 NO → 50 USDT)** * Happens outside the order book (no spread, no slippage) * No fees apply

# Fees ### Fees Probable charges trading fees to keep markets liquid, fair, and reliable — especially when prices are uncertain. Fees are not just a cost; they help balance the market, reduce noise, and reward traders who act with conviction. *** #### Key Notes * **Only takers pay fees. Makers trade free.** Providing liquidity on Probable is completely fee-free. * Taker fees range from **0.01% up to 1.75%**, depending on market price * Fees are highest when market trades at 50% probability * Fees decrease as the price moves toward 0% probability and 100% probability *** ### How to check my fees? * Your estimated fee is shown directly in the order preview before you confirm a trade. * Fees update in real time based on price and order type.
### Price Curve * Trades at extreme probabilities (near 0% or 100%): Lower fees due to reduced uncertainty * Trades at equilibrium (50% probability): Higher fees reflecting maximum uncertainty and peak activity
### Settlement & Gas * All fees are either charged in the settlement asset (e.g. USDT) or the CTF token of the market * Probable covers gas costs for trade execution and settlement # Recover Missing Deposit If you deposited the wrong cryptocurrency on other chains, use these tools to recover those funds. #### How to recovery missing deposits Use this tool if you deposited the wrong token on other chains. 1. Go to and sign in to our Probable account or connect the wallet you use on Probable. 2. Select the chain you incorrectly deposited. 3. You’ll then see the asset balance displayed, and will have the ability to recover those funds to your specified wallet. *** #### Details * Gas is not sponsored, so you must first deposit the relevant gas token and create a proxy wallet on the chain where you made the incorrect deposit. * We currently support recovery for a limited set of assets. For unsupported chains or tokens, please contact our support team for assistance. Unfortunately we are unable to support token recovery on Polygon due to technical constraints. Funds deposited on Polygon cannot be recovered through our systems and should be considered permanently lost. | Chains | Token supported | | ------------ | --------------- | | **BSC** | BNB, USDC, USDT | | **Ethereum** | USDC, USDT | | **Arbitrum** | USDC, USDT0 | | **Base** | USDC, USDT | | **Monad** | USDC, USDT0 | | **Plasma** | USDT0 | # How are Markets Created? Users currently cannot create their own markets directly; new markets are added by our team after careful review to ensure they are well-defined and resolve unambiguously. *(*[*Community suggestions*](https://discord.com/invite/0xprobable) *for market ideas are welcome)* # How are Markets Resolved? Market resolution means outcome for the event has been confirmed and no further trading is allowed. The price of the outcome has either settled to $1 or $0. Users can claim their rewards if they win. Markets will usually resolve after the event concludes or in some cases if the outcome can be confirmed beforehand (for example, BTC price hitting $100k in 2025). * **Resolution Sources:** On every market’s page, it is specified how and when the market will be resolved. This could be a specific time (e.g., “Market resolves on Dec 31, 2025, based on the official result by XYZ source”) or dependent on an outcome happening (“If event happens before deadline, market resolves early as Yes”). Probable uses UMA oracle service to fetch the outcome and resolve the markets. [Here’s](https://docs.uma.xyz/protocol-overview/how-does-umas-oracle-work) how UMA works. Once the event outcome is known, a transaction is triggered on smart contracts to record the outcome. * **Payouts:** After resolution, the smart contracts will automatically allow redemption of shares. If you still hold shares of the winning outcome, you can redeem them for $1 each. If you held shares of the losing outcome, they are now worthless. * **Claiming Winnings:** Users need to actively click a “Claim” button to get their payout (which triggers a transaction to swap your outcome tokens for USDT). * **Disputes:** Proposed answer may be disputed on UMA within dispute period (can vary and is set per question). If an answer is disputed, UMA token holders get to vote to decide the correct outcome. A dispute is typically resolved between 24 to 48 hours. If for some reason a market’s outcome is unclear after voting the market will resolve at 50/50 YES/NO. # Points Program Probable has launched a Points Program to reward users for meaningful participation on the platform. Points earned through various incentive mechanisms will later translate into token airdrops, subject to future announcements. The Points Program is composed of multiple reward programs, each targeting a specific type of user behaviour. *** ### Rewarded Activities Points are allocated based on relative contribution and quality of activity. Exact calculations, weightings, and eligibility thresholds may vary by epoch and are subject to adjustment to prevent abuse. The Points Program currently rewards the following types of on-platform activity: * **Trading Volume** Users earn points based on executed trading volume. Artificial or manipulative trading activity is excluded * **Referral** Users earn points by referring new users to Probable. Referral rewards are distributed according to the Referral Program rules active for each epoch. Self-referral and other referral abuse are excluded * **Liquidity Provisioning** Users earn points for providing liquidity via limit orders. Orders that are closer to market odds, contribute to both sides, are larger in size, and remain open for longer periods may earn more points * **Position Holding** Users earn points by maintaining token positions over time. Points, if awarded, scale with position size and holding duration, and will depend on market activity and resolution status Additional reward mechanisms may be introduced over time and will be documented here as they go live #### Points & Token Airdrops * Points earned DO NOT represent tokens themselves * Accumulated points will be used to determine future token airdrops * Token distribution mechanics will be announced separately * Participating early and consistently increases potential airdrop allocation #### Epochs & Distribution Schedule Points are distributed in epochs, defined as fixed weekly periods. * **Epoch duration:** 7 days * **Distribution time:** Every Monday at **00:00 UTC** * Each epoch considers points accumulated during the week * Points are credited to users after the epoch ends #### Weekly Points Allocation * A fixed number of points are distributed every week * The total weekly points are split across all active reward programs * Each program is assigned a weight, determining its share of points #### Program Weights * Program weights are determined by the Probable team * Weights may change between epochs * Users are encouraged to participate across all active programs to maximise total points earned # Referral Rewards The Referral Program is designed to reward users for bringing new traders to the platform while incentivising high-quality trading activity. Rewards are distributed in the form of points, calculated using PnL-weighted volume to discourage wash trading and low-signal volume. Both the **referrer** and the **referee** benefit from the program. *** ### Eligibility & Roles #### Referrer A referrer is an existing user who has met the minimum trading requirement and can generate a referral link. **Eligibility** * User must have lifetime trading volume > $100 * If the requirement is not met: * Referral code generation remains locked
**Referral Code Generation** Once unlocked: * User can click [**Generate Referral Code**](https://probable.markets/points) * A unique referral URL and code is generated **Referrer Rewards** * Referrer earns **10% of the points generated by each referee** * Rewards are calculated and distributed per epoch (weekly) *** #### Referee A referee is a new user who joins the platform using a referral code or referral link. **Who Qualifies as a New User?** * A user who has not yet created an account or proxy wallet; or is depositing the funds for the first time * Existing users cannot retroactively apply a referral code **Referral Entry Paths** There are two supported ways for a referee to join: **1. Referral Code During First Deposit** * When a user deposits for the first time, users can input the referral code * The existing deposit modal is used in such cases
**2. Referral Link Flow** * User clicks the referral link * User connects wallet and creates proxy wallet * Referral code is automatically applied and linked with the user account **Referee Rewards** * Referee earns **100% of the points generated by their own activity** * Points are calculated using PnL-weighted trading volume mechanism *** #### Why PnL-Weighted Volume? Wash trades typically generate near-zero PnL, even if volume is high. By weighting volume using PnL, the system naturally discounts wash trading and rewards meaningful trading activity. {% hint style="success" %} **Whether the PnL is positive or negative doesn’t matter, the score is based on absolute value.** {% endhint %} #### How to maximise point generation via referral program? * Execute genuine trades that generate real PnL (positive or negative doesn't matter), as points are calculated using PnL-weighted volume (wash trades with near-zero PnL earn little to no points). * **Refer new active traders**: Share your referral link with new users - earn **10% of the points** they generate through their own PnL-weighted trading activity. * **Increase sustained trading activity across epochs**: Trade consistently each week to accumulate higher PnL-weighted volume, improving your share of points distributed in every epoch. # Brand Assets & Guidelines {% file src="/files/eCArIzZSfpfW7pXuCfcf" %} {% hint style="warning" %} **Before using any assets, please review the guidelines below. While some of Probable’s technology is openly shared, the Probable brand is not open-source.** {% endhint %} **The following Brand Assets are protected intellectual property and may only be used as specified:** 1. The Probable logo, logotype and name the Probable name 2. Other visual assets from Probable include illustrations & UI graphics. **You may use Probable’s Brand Assets in the following ways:** 1. **👌 Product Reference:** Mentioning Probable’s products or services (e.g., "Trade prediction markets on Probable"). 2. **👌 Linking:** Directing users to our official website or product pages. 3. **👌 Partnership Announcements:** Announcing an official partnership with prior approval from a Probable representative. *For any other use cases not mentioned, please contact the Probable team for approval before proceeding.* #### **Prohibited Actions** To maintain user trust and safety, it ’s essential to protect the Probable brand. Users must easily differentiate between official Probable associations and others. ⛔️ **Prohibited Usage:** * Do not use Probable Brand Assets in your product names or logos, e.g., "Probable Engine" or "Probable Markets." * Avoid incorporating the Probable logo (fully or partially) in your branding, including similar logos or icons. ⛔️ **Product Creation:** * Do not create or sell products using Probable Brand Assets, including merchandise, NFTs, or any commercial goods. ⛔️ **Derivative Names:** * Avoid names that suggest official endorsement or affiliation, such as "Probable India" or "Official Probable Community." ⛔️ **Modification Restrictions:** * Do not alter Probable Brand Assets in any way, including changing colors, stretching, cropping, or adding effects. # Restricted Jurisdictions Access to and use of the Probable platform is prohibited for any person or entity that is residing in, a citizen of, organized in, incorporated in, or otherwise located in a Restricted Jurisdiction. Restricted Jurisdictions include Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, and the Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, as well as the United States, United Kingdom, China, France, Canada, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, and Taiwan. Probable may modify the list of Restricted Jurisdictions at any time to reflect changes in applicable laws or regulations. # Page 1